Colin Read • Sep 25, 2021
Elon Musk - Edison Reincarnated or a European Cologne? - September 26, 2021
I recently read an article with a headline along the lines of “Sometimes the Wrong Person Asks Us to Do the Right Thing.” Elon Musk comes to mind, among others.
Let’s first get the elephant in the room out of the way. Certainly Elon Musk is not the world’s best diplomat. He strives to be technologically disruptive, and, in doing so, he is often politically, socially, and perhaps even ethically disruptive. I think this is counterproductive, for technology and even for Mr. Musk, but that may be a generational thing. It’s hard to separate the message from the messenger at times.
But, we are adult enough to do the necessary compartmentalization. I understand that people younger than me often practice an “in your face” and perhaps even rude woke culture where filters seem to no longer apply. I attribute that to the coarseness encouraged by social media, but let’s save that for another day.
I’m not going to throw the baby out with the bathwater though. The stakes are too high.
So, let’s forget the coarseness of the messenger for now, and let’s not get too caught up in whether his comments serve society or serve his immense wealth. The real equation is whether we sufficiently value the scope of his contributions to humankind. Musk’s mission has immense implications on humanity. Let’s consider its breadth and depth.
First, while I hope his goal to create an avenue for settlements on Mars as a refuge for a planet we are destroying may be a bit pessimistic, he has done more for space exploration and rocketry than any person since and perhaps including Werner von Braun.
I’m sure many don’t closely track his accomplishments as my inner nerd does. They are incredibly significant, though. In just a decade or so he has managed to create a rocket that has flown more times than just about any other rocket. He has also produced more rocket engines than any other rocket line. His engines are radically state-of-the-art. They are the first entirely reusable rockets, and have taken off and successfully returned to earth more than any other rocket engine has merely taken off. Certainly no entity had the audacity to also return these valuable and resource-intensive rockets to earth to the same extent and with the same economy, although Jeff Bezos has had some limited preliminary success.
This ability to completely redefine the economics of rocketry by an order of magnitude is in itself remarkable. But, it does not stop there.
He used these vehicles to make space more accessible and affordable, to new satellite projects, to better and less expensive access to the Space Station, to the first U.S. company to successfully reach the space station in decades, and to bring entirely civilian-crewed missions to space, just as science fiction often portrays.
He also used this leverage and economy to launch a fleet of communications satellites that now constitutes the greatest number of satellites in space for any one company - by far. The Starlink network is bringing high speed, low latency broadband to everywhere in the world at a price and speed comparable to cable and far better than any other space-based provider. This innovation is game-changing for rural residents and for nations to now essentially left out of the Internet revolution.
His technological disruption has certainly upset a few folks, especially those used to lucrative cost-plus contracts with NASA, at the taxpayer expense. Some have mounted a lobbying campaign to discredit Musk and the effect he has on their bottom line.
While Musk provides access to satellite launches to the private and public sector at about half the cost of other launchers, he still manages to make a profit that he plows back into SpaceX. This income has been used to design the world’s most advanced rocket engine, the Raptor, that is far more efficient and reliable than any other engine ever made, and manufactured for reusability at a minute fraction of the cost of his competitors. These engines power the world’s most powerful rocket booster and spaceship, still in development, called Starship. It’s efficiency and payload dwarfs other rockets, and will allow him to build out satellite networks, bring people and crafts to the moon, and perhaps even succeed in building a settlement on Mars, all primarily with private rather than NASA funds.
This level of innovation was initially enabled by his co-development and sale of Paypal, one of the world’s most successful online payment systems, which he sold to EBay to enable development of additional technologies.
Musk used these resources to also produce the world’s most advanced and innovative electric car company, Tesla Motors. These cars are years ahead of much of the competition, in design, in efficiency, in range, in speed and acceleration, and in safety and affordability. Since he has produced many times more than 200,000 such cars, his U.S.-made vehicles are not eligible for the same $7,500 subsidy afforded VW, Nissan, and others. Despite this disadvantage, he still sells more cars than the rest of the industry combined, and the value of his electric car company is greater than any other U.S. automaker.
His factories are not unionized, so he is ostracized in some circles. Indeed, legislation proposed under the $3.5 trillion infrastructure bill will prevent his non-unionized American-made cars from earning subsidies, even though unionized non-American automakers will be eligible. This is a clear example of politics trumping of innovation.
Musk would argue that his real innovation in automobiles may not be his cars but his ability to make them self driving. Autonomous zero emission vehicles have long been the stuff of science fiction until he brought the technologies to the masses. His technology has not yet attained full Level 4 autonomous driving with no human intervention, but he is closest of any current manufacturer.
As always, when he finds his needs to far exceed the state of the industry, he brings design and manufacturing in-house. In this case, it means even developing the large scale silicon chips and Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies he needs. Musk had to invent technologies that have never before existed, and few have imagined. He has also recognized that AI is the future. He has spun off an entire AI division to let the U.S. take a leadership position in an industry that China is determined to dominate. He believes his AI solutions may indeed make the biggest contribution and be the most valuable division in his vast technology space. His Neuralink AI spinoff is allowing the paralyzed to regain use of limbs and prosthetics. While he may remain overconfident in the great strides this and other divisions shall muster, I would not bet against him.
Meanwhile, Musk has built a company for home and commercial solar installations across the country, and for huge battery storage facilities around the world that allow solar to generate very affordable energy during the day and also then be banked and used at night. Australia is saving billions by deploying this combination of solar generation and storage.
These innovations are absolutely key to converting our electric grid to a sustainable system. Wind, President Biden’s pledge to expand solar by a factor of 16 by the next decade, hydroelectricity, and new nuclear that can easily be configured to throttle up generation when the sun doesn’t shine and wind doesn’t blow will be sufficient, in combination with sensible energy conservation practices, to meet zero carbon electricity self-sufficiency by next decade.
Musk is also developing technologies to move mass transportation networks and utilities underground through his Boring Company and his machines that can quickly and less expensively drill fourteen feet diameter holes under our cities.
I see one more avenue for Musk that could revolutionize energy sustainability in the U.S. and leverage what he is already doing. Our electric grid is woefully inadequate, designed for the 1950s rather than the 2020s. For one thing, we are moving toward direct current (DC) power generation, just as in the Edison days, from wind and solar. The most state-of-the-art power transmission line in the world, in China, also transports electricity at half the waste and greater capacity, using recent innovations in DC circuitry. While a topic for another day, I see a new DC grid optimized for solar and wind locations, and utilizing existing rights of way on the existing Interstate and railroad routes. Just as Commodore Vanderbilt built out the Gilded-Age U.S. of the 19th Century with railroads, Musk can transport the resource of the 21st Century, sustainable energy. In the process, he can even electrify our highways to charge cars as they drive.
When you consider the transformational effect of his cars, his autonomous driving systems, his rocket engines, his boosters and starships, his solar panels, his battery innovations, his storage systems, his boring machines, and his other innovations, he compares favorably, and likely succeeds, the innovations of Thomas Alva Edison. We remember Edison for the light bulb, DC generation, the phonograph and moving pictures, among others. I would argue that Musk is more transformational than Edison.
Both were controversial figures at the time. Let’s get over that, and celebrate rather than discourage incredible innovation. Elon Musk has single-handedly produced the most advanced products in many of the most challenging applications humankind has ever known. In doing so, he has inspired his competition to try to keep up. Meanwhile we can only marvel at how these insights and innovations, and his determination will change our lives.
This is the stuff of a Presidential Medal of Freedom, if only we can focus on the benefits to humankind, not the statements of a man. Some with deep pockets from their cozy relationship with government may find Musk’s brashness and occasional inappropriate comments as great fodder to slow down his technological disruptions. But, readers of this blog realize progress is inherently displacing and troubling to those least innovative. That is the price of progress. Perhaps we can put the innovator before the persona, and focus on the brilliance. I recognize Mr. Musk may view his statements as necessary provocations to be a disruptor-in-chief. Disrupt away. Ultimately, the proof is in the pudding. Make mine chocolate.
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